Just as we talked about when we rated quarterbacks, there are going to be a number of key factors to consider when entering your fantasy football draft. Obviously the schedule is important, as is the weather in games and health.
However, knowing how your league scores is ultimately a reason to pick one back over another. For example, Adrian Peterson didn't lead the league in rushing, but put up 18 touchdowns last year. If Ryan Grant is only going to get you six touchdowns, but Ray Rice might get you 11, and their rushing yards are equal, it's important to pay attention to those numbers.
It's also important to see if leagues count rush attempts and/or receptions. Some backs, like Chris Johnson and Rice, pick up a lot of receiving yards while others, like Peterson, do not. This is also key when considering a back in the draft.
With all that in mind, let's rank the running backs for 2010.
The Cream of the Crop
- Chris Johnson, Tennessee
- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
- Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
- Ray Rice, Baltimore
All four of these guys could put up very similar numbers this year, rushing for somewhere between 1,300-1,500 yards and posting double-digit touchdowns. However, each has unique skills to bring to the table, and concerns, that are worthy of additional consideration.
Johnson: led the league in rushing last year. Teams will focus on him in 2010, forcing Vince Young to beat them. Don't expect 2,000 rushing yards again.
Peterson: coughs up the ball too much. He lost six fumbles last year, and the Vikings were forced to use Chester Taylor late in many games to preserve their lead. Being that Taylor is now in Chicago, and Brett Favre hasn't officially come back yet, Peterson could have a rough season.
Jones-Drew: he's the leader of a young offense and handled the ball a lot last year. His 14 touchdowns might not happen again this year, but the 1,300+ yards could.
Rice: he's in the best situation of this top group. He's a good receiver and has capable bodies with whom he can share carries. However, with the addition of Anquan Boldin the Ravens might be more pass-happy in the red zone, and Rice only rushed for seven touchdowns last year. Still a safe bet for over 1,700 all-purpose yards.
Second-Tier Starters: Worth Waiting, not Over Paying
- Steven Jackson, St. Louis
- Ryan Grant, Green Bay
- Frank Gore, San Francisco
- Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
- Michael Turner, Atlanta
- Cedric Benson, Cincinnati
- Ryan Matthews, San Diego
These seven guys are trendy picks that might be worth considering in a second or third round, but aren't worth a gamble in the first.
The biggest argument on this list is Jackson being included in the second tier and not with the big boys as locks for big seasons. However, the Rams have been running him into the ground and history shows that backs averaging consistently 320-340 carries a season over an extended period of time don't last very long. With the Rams mediocre line and the money they've invested in Sam Bradford in mind, Jackson might have seen his last 1,400-yard season.
With Grant and Benson, the biggest issue is consistency. Both have outstanding weeks and miserable weeks in the same season, and are both a fantasy owner's best friend and worst enemy in the matchup format.
Both Gore and Mendenhall have dealt with injuries in their pasts, but should be good to go for around 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. Mendenhall might be the best pick of this group because of Pittsburgh's quarterback issues (Roethlisberger suspended, Holmes traded). Gore is a beast that should see better holes with an improved line in San Fran.
Turner lived up to his nickname by burning fantasy owners that picked him at the top last year. He came into camp out of shape and dealt with injuries all season. He reported to camp in shape and on time this year, and could return to dominant form for the Falcons.
Matthews was the Chargers' first round pick this year, and he'll be the man for them because LaDanian Tomlinson's now with the Jets. They like him a lot, and have had success in the last decade, so seeing him put up numbers similar to those Matt Forte did for the Bears in his rookie year could be expected.
Tandems: Teams That Will Run-By-Committee
- Kansas City - Thomas Jones, Jamaal Charles
- New Orleans - Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas
- Carolina - DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart
- Chicago - Matt Forte, Chester Taylor
- Indianapolis - Joseph Addai, Donald Brown
- New York Jets - Shonn Greene, LaDanian Tomlinson
- Detroit - Kevin Smith, Jahvid Best
- Miami - Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown
- Oakland - Michael Bush, Darren McFadden
This is a longer group because more and more teams are moving two an offense that features more than one primary back. There are some intriguing names in strange places on this list, though, and these teams could give fantasy owners migraines all year.
Jones had one of his best seasons in the NFL last year, running for over 1,400 yards with the Jets. But they, as so many other teams have, decided to dump him after a great season. So he landed in Kansas City, which is puzzling because Charles had his own 1,000-yard season last year. It's hard to handicap which of these two will get more carries, especially in the red zone.
Similarly, Carolina has two backs that have had exceptional seasons in the last couple years. Both DeAngelo Williams and Stewart have seen their names in the top ten in the league in rushing, and in an offense that's going to be featured a new quarterback, both of these guys should see plenty of carries. DeAngelo Williams and Stewart might be the strongest individual plays of these players.
In New Orleans, Bush is a year past knee surgery and looks explosive. But Thomas is the better runner between the tackles and, while he might not put up as many all-purpose yards, could make up for it by seeing the end zone more often.
Forte and Taylor are intriguing in Chicago because it's hard to know what Mike Martz's system is going to look like with the Bears' personnel. The team has three tight ends on the roster, a questionable offensive line, and the same group of relatively young receivers. It's also hard to handicap which of these guys will see the end zone more often.
The Jets are an interesting situation because Greene showed the ability to be a top-tier back last year (which is why they let Jones walk), but the addition of future Hall of Famer Tomlinson clouds the situation. Clearly Tomlinson doesn't intend on being a full-time backup, and has a history of finding the end zone.
With Indianapolis, Detroit and Miami, there are injury concerns that make picking any of those four backs hard. Ricky Williams had a nice season last year, but Ronnie Brown is the more electrifying back. Both Smith and Best had their seasons end with injuries last year, so Detroit might be a wild card. In Indy, Addai has been solid when healthy, but Brown looked like he could be a dominant back last year when he got a chance. Which player Peyton Manning hands the ball to will be a question mark each week, and their touches in the red zone could be spread out as well.
Oakland is... well, Oakland. Jason Campbell should improve the offense, but knowing which guy is going to get the bulk of the carries is an annual crapshoot.
The MC Hammer Group - Don't Touch This
Dallas - they have three backs that all have histories of injuries and splitting carries. Marion Barber has never emerged a a prime-time back, but could get double-digit touchdowns.Tashard Choice and Felix Jones are sexy picks because they're home run hitters, but the three figure to see equal action in different situations. Good luck picking the most valuable of the three!
Denver - Knowshon Moreno's the most talented, Correll Buckhalter is the most consistent, and neither is healthy. Given their quarterback issues and the health concerns already popping up, it might be best to avoid the Broncos completely in the draft.
New York Giants - Brandon Jacobs is a beast, while Ahmad Bradshaw is a bowling ball. They combined for 387 carries and 12 touchdowns last year, but knowing which back gets the ball week-to-week is a health-based guessing game. Either could be a decent RB2 pick, but neither is a lead back.
Washington - they brought in Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan, which would lead a fantasy owner to think the Skins will probably throw the ball more often this year. Washington also quietly added two over-the-hill running backs, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker to their backfield to compete with over-the-hill Clinton Portis for touches. It's easy to say avoid this situation on draft day.
Tampa Bay - Cadillac Williams has been more of a pinto the last few years, spending most of his time on the sidelines in a t-shirt. Derrick Ward had a nice season with the Giants before Tampa overpaid for him, and he didn't impress as much as they would have hoped last year. This could be an interesting backfield to watch in 2010 as they continue to develop their offense around young quarterback Josh Freeman.
Houston - the Texans had 13 rushing touchdowns last year from four running backs, and were only able to get 437 yards and three of those touchdowns from Steve Slaton. Because Slaton lost three fumbles last year, Ryan Moats looked like a stronger fantasy play until they selected Ben Tate from Auburn in the draft. Tate could easily emerge as the leading rusher in Houston, but gambling on any of these backs as more than a third or fourth backfield option would be a mistake.
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